AMR Policy Decision Support

Step 1 · Scenario context

Population, horizon & WTP

Define the cohort, time horizon and willingness-to-pay (WTP).

Population size

Average cohort (e.g. hospital catchment or country sample).

Time horizon (years)

AMR policy horizons are often 5–10 years.

WTP threshold (€/QALY)

Used to classify policies as cost-effective vs. not.

AMR burden setting

Only used for presets – you can still override pathogen parameters.

Not sure about WTP? Many European settings use 20–50k €/QALY.

Step 2 · Pathogens

Add resistant pathogens

Specify incidence, case-fatality, and per-case cost / QALY loss for each pathogen.

Pathogen name

Incidence λ (per person-year)

Example: 0.002 ≈ 0.2% per year.

Case fatality (0–1)

Example: 0.2 = 20% mortality among cases.

Cost per case (€)

QALY loss per case

QALY loss per death

Represents remaining life expectancy.

Pathogen	λ	CFR	Cost/Case	QALY loss (case; death)

Step 3 · Policies

Define AMR policies

Each policy acts as a % change on incidence, mortality and cost + a fixed annual programme cost.

Policy name

Δ incidence (%)

Negative for reduction (e.g. -20 = -20%).

Δ mortality (%)

Δ cost per case (%)

Programme cost / year (€)

Policy	Δ λ (%)	Δ CFR (%)	Δ cost (%)	Programme €/year

Click to load and test commonly discussed AMR strategies.

Results · Scenario outputs

Costs, QALYs, deaths, ICER & incremental NMB

Configure the scenario on the left, add at least one pathogen and one policy, then click Run simulation. Results will appear here.

Unsure about parameters? Search Google Scholar or PubMed for burden, CFRs or cost estimates. Use WHO / ECDC / OECD links for global AMR reports.